GLOBAL
ECONOMIC RALLY?
13 November 2003
After
three years of consistent job losses, even the languishing
US job market expanded in the third quarter, according
to government figures (based on those receiving aid
for lack of work). Germany appears to be out of recession,
and European stocks are on the rise. China's exports
are booming, as the nation exploits its peculiar labor
conditions (decried worldwide as not meeting international
standards for fair labor practice).
But
do quarterly growth rates in GDP indicate real economic
recovery? Are such increases sustainable? Some major
analysts believe that inefficiencies inherent in the
current system of economic assumptions are responsible
for ongoing economic distresses. As populations boom
across the developing world, demand for basic necessities,
like food, water and shelter, begin competing with
industrial requirements for absorption of cropland
into development projects. With population rising,
as median and disposable incomes increase, and land
available for agricultural purposes decreases, there
is an increasing need for new means of optimizing
nutritive output.
Countries
which are not able to meed basic demand for food and
water through domestic production will need to turn
to world markets. Such a move, if scarcity is severe
enough, could have a devastating effect on world food
prices, cost of living, and an economic ripple effect
similar to a crash in currency or stock valuations.
GLOBAL
ECONOMY WAVERS
05
May 2003
In
the wake of a war in Iraq, with international climate
controls and diplomatic bodies losing strength, while
governments around the world aim to protect the assets
of favored industry leaders or international partners,
as the SARS crisis deepens in Beijing, markets everywhere
stand on shaky ground.
Speculation
is mounting that the Chinese market for consumer goods
will inevitably slow before it catches the momentum
many had hoped would continue. Tourism and travel
are seeing fallout from economic slowdown, layoffs,
and fears of SARS, international conflict and terrorism.
The
tug of war between free trade policies professed by
the leaders of the developed world and the apparent
need for some of those leaders to impose trade restrictions
that protect their own domestic markets from the global
downturn is heating up. Development projects like
Iraq have placed a spotlight on the inherent difficulties
of building foreign nations while one's own budget
spirals out of control.
Germany
is facing a third consecutive year of violating EU
requirements for budgetary restraint. The UK is now
before the question of trading into the Euro, a move
which might hurt an economy built on the unique strength
of the British Pound Sterling. The South of France
is seeing aggressive new moves from labor groups demanding
fair consideration in times of narrowing profits.
The
Chinese government is said to be concealing reports
about isolated incidents of popular unrest in response
to measures of quarantine in the face of SARS. Some
hope there are now signs of a political transformation
(toward transparency and public involvement in policy)
taking place in China, though it is clearly too soon
to tell.
