Every statement in this paper is covered in detail in the references presented at the
conclusion of this discussion.

FIRST — is that Global Warming is NOT a new effect. It has occurred five times
during the past 500,000 years! The basic cause is Methane (CH4) and
NOT man-made Carbon Dioxide (CO2). The present global warming
cycle began about the time man was crossing the frozen land bridge
from Siberia to North America.

We need to understand the sources and mechanics of Methane that
are actually the basic cause of our global warming. Anything that has
grown, ranging from yard clippings to a decaying body, produces
methane as it decomposes. Methane gas from permafrost is a decay
product. Methane gas from the deep ocean (methane hydrate) is totally different.

Methane gas from oil wells is yet a very different composition. These
must all be recognized as such and understood as to their manner of
existence, production, and/or release.

Deep Sea Methane appears to be the waste product of a bacteriological
process and is therefore a renewable resource! ( See Reference 2).
It is a relative clean product of our environment. It has recently been
produced (as clean natural gas) in continuous commercial quantities
by Japanese & American scientists in Canada in 2008. It is this Methane
gas that has been bubbling up, for eons,from the continental shelfs
around the world that is the real culprit
and basic cause of our present situation.

Oil well Methane gas is a very dirty gas mixture — it is methane with
huge amounts of sulfur and other noxious gases mixed with it. The
Methane often mentioned in the media as “Bubbling up from Undersea
Permafrost” is a decay product. It is NOT from a Hydrate!

NEXT — Drastic Global Climate Change has taken place at least FIVE
different times during the last 500,000 years. Our present cycle is
the only one during which man has been a factor! (Ref. 1 & 2). Methane
gas which bubbles up continuously from the deep ocean sources (and
which in turn disassociates into CO2) is the true source of the “Greenhouse
Gas” that has operated in the previous five interglacial cycles — all
of which have been extinction cycles! As will this one!

These five previous cycles are NOT man made effects, nor is the
present cycle, and it IS TOO LATE to change our present cycle, we
may actually now be past the peak. We can only learn to adapt!
We cannot STOP the process although we might slow
it down for a few years, which in geological time is nothing.
The Vostok Ice Core tests made in Antartica PROVE that there
has been a huge upwelling and release of CH4 associated with
every one of these five interglacial episodes! (Ref.2)

We MUST ADAPT to survive! ADAPT! ADAPT ! ADAPT !

REFERENCES

There are several prime references associated with the material that I
have covered, if ever so briefly.

(1) EARTH’s CHANGING CLIMATE. Lecture Series by Dr. Richard
Wolfson, the Benjamin F. Wissler Professor of Physics at Middlebury
College. This is a six hour lecture series (12 segments of 30 minutes
each) on two DVDs produced by The Teaching Company of Chantilly VA
20151-1232.
http://www.TEACH12.com

This series covers in-depth detail of the science and methodology of
climate change. It is not an advocacy program. Interestingly, Dr.
Wolfson does not even mention Methane-Clatherate in this lecture
series — knowledge on that subject is almost too new to have been
included. It was first discovered on a moon of Venus by NASA about
1985. At the time we did not even know that it existed on Earth!

(2) FIRE IN THE ICE. Quarterly Journal , U.S.Department of Energy,
Office of Fossil Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory. Also
known as Methane Hydrate Newsletter. Recommended reading is all
issues to current issue from about 2000 forward. This is the best of
several technical journals devoted to the science of Methane
Clatherates.
http://www.netl.doe.gov/about/index.html

(3) HIGH TIDE by Mark Lynas. Picador, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY.
10010. ISBN 0-312-30365-3. This well written book clarifies the problems
of Global Warming “… The American People have been subjected to one
of the most pervasive misinformation campaigns ever undertaken … “
http://www.picadorusa.com

(4) WITH SPEED AND VIOLENCE [Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in
Climate Change] by Fred Pearce. Beacon Press; 25 Beacon Street;
Boston, MA 02108. © 2007. “We are on the precipice of climate system
tipping points beyond which there is no redemption”
http://www.beacon.org

(5) Natural Gas Hydrate Studies in Canada; Hyndman & Dallimore from
The Recorder, 26,11-20, 2001, Canadian Society of Exploration
Geophysicists.

JCSpilman, P.E. (Ret.) Huntsville, AL

In fact methane has a 100 year GWE of about 23 and a 20 year GWE of about 73.

In fact even these figures are low as methane only has a lifetime in the atmosphere of roughly 10 to 12 years and based on it’s actual lifetime it has o GWE of more than 80 when compared with CO2. You should also be aware that methane oxidises to form CO2, each tonne of methane in the atmosphere breaks down to form 2 3/4 tonnes of CO2.

At the moment methane forms only 1.75 ppm of the atmosphere (compared with 387 ppm of CO2) yet it produces almost 20% of the GW that is occurring.

The present atmospheric quantity of methane is 2 1/2 times what it was 250 years ago and as global temperatures continue to rise, so will methane emissions continue to rise (a positive feed back loop).

By releasing so much CO2 from fossil fuel combustion we are unleashing natural methane emissions at an ever increasing rate and no amount of political posing is going to solve the problem.

It is already a self sustaining process and I dont see anyone working on finding solutions.

See Reagan and Moridis (JGR, 2008) to learn just how unlikely that is, except for at high latitudes.

“When they are destabilized, they release trapped methane into the oceans, and eventually into the atmosphere.”

No, they primarily release methane into sediments. Quite often into sediments that are 100 to 200 or more meters below the sea-floor. From there, that methane has to find its way to the seafloor. Only a small fraction would ever make to the atmosphere, as much is oxidized by organisms in the sediment, at the seafloor, or in the water column. And then, much of the rest will simply dissolve in the seawater, which is highly undersaturated with respect to methane.

The rest of this is without much basis, but sure is entertaining reading. The links between hydrate and the catastrophes you envision have simply not been made. And while I agree that they must be evaluated, best of luck in convincing the Indians, Japanese, Koreans, and Chinese of that. You rightly bemoan the impacts of resource scarity. Perhaps the first of these, unfortunately, will be energy resource scarcity. What is your answer to those growing economies that need energy resources now? Just what is the “cleanest, zero-combustion, non-nuclear option” THAT CAN build “a sustainable global economy that is not on course for catastrophic decay?” Does it involve fairies??