Price of Rice Doubles on World Markets, Undermining Asian Stability
Crisis Policy Forum, Food Security: Africa ::
Rice is a basic food staple for nearly half the world’s population. The world’s two most populous nations, China and India, depend heavily on the grain for basic sustenance, and for economic stability. The price of rice has doulbed in the last 3 months, causing concern about potential for conflict along Asian border regions.
The Philippine president has ordered government agents to investigate potential “hoarders”, seeking to either cash in on rising prices or protect themselves against the instability that could result from prolonged scarcity. The causes of this scarcity are complex, tied to environmental trends, rapidly expanding population, elevated living standards, poor water-use planning and the loss of arable land.
The New York Times is reporting that
Shortages and high prices for all kinds of food have caused tensions and even violence around the world in recent months. Since January, thousands of troops have been deployed in Pakistan to guard trucks carrying wheat and flour. Protests have erupted in Indonesia over soybean shortages, and China has put price controls on cooking oil, grain, meat, milk and eggs.
Food riots have erupted in recent months in Guinea, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, Uzbekistan and Yemen. But the moves by rice-exporting nations over the last two days — meant to ensure scarce supplies will meet domestic needs — drove prices on the world market even higher this week.
Even agricultural powerhouses like the United States may find themselves impacted by the price increase. The US is already facing down impending recession, and prices have been exploding in food, healthcare and transport, while the overall economy slows to zero growth.
But poor nations with chronic food scarcity will likely be hardest hit. Asia’s major rice exporters are limiting or freezing exports, putting rice-poor importers at risk of severe scarcity. Many African nations are struggling with issues of agricultural productivity or economic instability, and cannot easily afford to replace vanishing imports with locally produced grains.
One potential stress on populous Asian nations, which also harbor some of the world’s poorest communities, is the risk of mass migration. Failure to generate a sustainable flow of basic food, entire communities can be forced to flee their homes in search of survival. In any environment, this is a stress on local economies; when scarcity is a regional or even global problem, weak economies or political structures can collapse.
OneWorld reports that the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) has found, in its most recent report that “Due to absence of rural infrastructure, incomplete land reforms and limited alternative income generating activities, agriculture productivity has declined”, and that an agricultural “revolution” is needed to reverse trends that have impoverished 218 million people.
- NY Times: “High Rice Cost Creating Fears of Asia Unrest”
- OneWorld: “UN report calls for agricultural ‘revolution’ in Asia-Pacific”
admin @ March 29, 2008