Iran Declares Ahmedinejad Winner, Results Widely Questioned as Fraudulent

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13 June 2009 :: staff

After a contentious and sometimes ugly election campaign, with accusations of corruption, “undermining” the nation, and incompetence, flying between the two main rivals for the presidency, Iranian officials have declared incumbent Mahmoud Ahmedinejad the outright winner, and by an astonishingly wide margin. The results have immediately been called into question by the opposition candidates, and by foreign governments and international observers barred from monitoring the polls.

The New York Times is reporting:

The Iranian government declared an outright election victory for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Saturday morning, and riot police officers fought with supporters of the opposition candidate, Mir Hussein Moussavi, who insisted that the election had been stolen.

Thousands of opposition supporters, who back the reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, have flooded onto the streets of Tehran, many of them wearing the reformist campaign’s signature green as scarves, headscarves, wristbands and as other items of clothing or banners. Mousavi’s supporters chanted his name and declared they would fight to see him recognized as the winner, as he had urged them to do Friday night, alleging widespread polling “irregularities”.

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Mousavi was prime minister from 1981 to 1989, when the post of prime minister was dissolved. The current supreme leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hoseyni Khāmene’i, was president during Mousavi’s term as PM, and there was friction. Khamene’i has a record of blocking the political aspirations of those he disagrees with. In 2005, reformist president Mohamad Khatami’s entire party was barred from presenting a presidential candidate. It is thought the supreme leader might have ordered the results be swayed in Ahmedinejad’s favor, though no hard evidence has yet been shown to demonstrate this.

The Iranian system of government is more open than many in the region, with regular elections, a republican constitution and an independent judiciary, but that republican constitution establishes a virtual theocracy to oversee the smooth functioning of the republic, and the near absolute authority the supreme leader can exercise as head of the revolutionary Guardian Council —empowered by Velāyat-e faqih, or the guardianship of Islamic jurists— means the entire political system lacks the adequate checks and balances to afford real transparency. 

With passions running high in an unusually open political season across Iran, the authorities appeared to have plans in place for crushing rallies in favor of opposition candidates, as noted by New York Times reporter Robert Worth:

But the Iranian authorities, already on alert, moved quickly to head off any concerted street demonstrations. Thousands of police officers could be seen moving into central Tehran, wielding riot batons and charging straight into the biggest concentrations of protesters. It was unclear whether there were any serious injuries.

Video reports emerging from Iran show state security forces, on motorbikes and on foot, chasing down unarmed civilians, beating them about the head and body with batons, and using other forms of blunt force. While it seems some demonstrators have set fires, either in protest or as makeshift barricades, it is unclear whether security forces have fired smoke grenades and/or tear gas at crowds of demonstrators. In some cases, it appears the “demonstrations” —declared illegal by the ruling clerics— are actually spontaneous gatherings including bystanders.

The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamene’i has said the victory declared for Ahmedinejad is a divine endorsement of the government and must be honored. He personally threatened opposition supporters, warning them the full force of the state would be brought to bear against anyone who challenges the results. Mir Hossein Mousavi has called the official endorsement of an Ahmedinejad victory a ”dangerous charade”, and promised to oppose it, in the interest of the Iranian people.

An official speaking for US president Barack Obama said the administration finds it “not credible” that Mousavi could have lost the balloting even in his own hometown, where he is a revered political leader, or that another candidate of national stature, Mehdi Karoubi, could have received less than 1% of the vote. According to FOX News:

There already are reports of violence outside Mousavi’s campaign headquarters and of huge demonstrations for both sides in central Tehran, with Mousavi trying to make his way to the one organized by his supporters. Even if widespread violence occurs, analysts see no prospect that this event would lead to a full-scale attempt at revolution or the toppling of the regime.

Speaking in terms which suggest a potentially long struggle, through legal and/or extralegal means, Mousavi said late last night in a press gathering: “I am the absolute winner of the election by a very large margin,” calling into question the regime’s official findings. He went on to say: “It is our duty to defend people’s votes. There is no turning back.”

Mousavi had campaigned on a platform of comprehensive social and political change, including the expansion of individual liberties and of opportunity for women. Some observers felt that even before the election, there was aversion among the ruling clerics that a Mousavi win could mean the marginalization of certain revolutionary principles in government policy.

Last night, Afshin Molavi told Margaret Warner, of PBS’ NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, that:

The election commission has — I mean, has pointed out that, of the 45 percent of the vote, Ahmadinejad is ahead. This is what is different from the 2009 — the 2005 elections. Because, in 2005, they just announced the election results early in the morning. They didn’t do this kind of rolling results.

And this is what many of Moussavi supporters feared. This is why we are seeing some rioting already.

With suspicion so widespread about official manipulation of the results, the ruling clerics might still be forced into recognizing the need for an examination of the ballots, through a judicial process, or  potential runoff between the two leading vote-getters. But friction between the reformist agenda and the Guardian Council means such accommodation remains unlikely, barring widespread unrest.

BBC World Service Radio: “Ahmadinejad election victory sparks violence in Iran”