Rivals Ahmedinajad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election
Related subjects: Asia / Pacific, Diplomacy & Politics, Iran, Iraq conflict, Middle East, Open Government, Rights & Freedoms, The Vote Comments (24)
After a long day of voting and possibly record voter turnout, Iran’s presidential election has ended in deep uncertainty. Reformist challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi has reportedly announced that he has won by a substantial margin, while state media are reporting that incumbent Pres. Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has won, with over 67% of the votes counted so far. Both candidates say they will contest the results if they are not declared winner.
The 67% figure claimed for Ahmedinejad is considered to be possible only as a result of a very incomplete count, as his popularity had waned substantially and hundreds of thousands of opposition supporters had demonstrated against him. His standing in public opinion, and even in the halls of power, had been considered so shaky that this election saw the most direct and relentless criticism of a sitting conservative president since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
Turnout is projected to possibly surpass the record 80% that swept reformist Mohammad Khatami to power 12 years ago. The high turnout is considered to be a sign that Mousavi has gained widespread support and could have a similar showing, potentially ousting the controversial hardline president.
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With an electorate of 42.5 million, and huge swaths of rural territory, counting all of Iran’s ballots precisely might not be as quick as either camp would like. An election contest could drag on for some time, and wind up being adjudicated by a court or by the Guardian Council itself, some fear. Recent weeks have seen mounting concern among observers that Iran’s 2009 presidential vote could be an echo of Florida’s 2000 recount debacle, with no clear or universally accepted winner.
According to Mohammad Bazzi, adjunct senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, in an online discussion with the Washington Post:
In some ways, Iran is more democratic than many other countries in the Middle East, where elections are not held or there is often one name on the ballot — that of the current leader. But Iranian elections are not entirely fair and open.
Only a small group of candidates are allowed to run by the Guardian Council, which is an unelected body of 12 clerics that have the authority to veto all electoral candidates and parliamentary decisions. Half of the members of the Guardian Council are directly appointed by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The other half are appointed by him indirectly.
Bazzi also noted that it is Khamanei, as supreme leader, who decides issues such as how to approach the US or whether Iran will continue its nuclear research and development. There is concern that Khamanei could seek to undermine the democratic process, due to his perceived preference for Ahmedinejad. Bazzi told the Washington Post that:
Khamenei, the supreme leader, has had contentious relations with all three of Ahmadinejad’s opponents. In the 1980s, when Khamenei was president of Iran, he frequently battled with Mousavi, who was prime minister at the time. Khamenei also tussled with Rezaii when he was commander of the Revolutionary Guards. In 2005, when Karroubi publicly made allegations of electoral fraud, the supreme leader denounced him.
The power wielded by the supreme leader could tempt him to simply “find a way” to hand a victory to Ahmedinejad, but Khamanei has sought to legitimate his rule and that of the elected government by staging elections that he insists are free and fair, within the confines of loyalty to the Islamic Revolution.
That both leading candidates might declare victory is considered not unreasonable, as it is possible neither will win a majority, leading to a runoff between Ahmedinejad and Mousavi. Mousavi has already alleged voting irregularities, alleging that millions of people had been denied the right to vote due to a shortage of ballots and that his election monitors had been denied access to the polls, raising the question of why they were barred.
Mousavi called on election officials to do their work properly in regard to the counting of all votes as well as the thorough investigation of his allegations of the “irregularities”. A high turnout among women and ethnic minorities could boost Mousavi’s chances. Himself an ethnic Azeri, Mousavi, like the other moderates, has pledged more freedoms for women.
US president Barack Obama welcomed the vigorous campaigning and contentious policy debates seen in this year’s race. He said his Cairo speech was intended to show the US was ready to enter a new era, adding that “ultimately the election is for the Iranians to decide. But just as has been true in Lebanon, what can be true in Iran as well is that you’re seeing people looking at new possibilities.”
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[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
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[...] Regrettably, Roberts does not source his key factual claim, but confirmation may be found in early claims of victory by both factions even before the votes are fully counted. The interesting fact is that “Reformist challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi has reportedly announced that he has won by a substantial margin” since the reported totals, such as they were, did not reflect this claim. We would still like to know who first declared victory. http://www.casavaria.com/cafesentido/2009/06/12/3011/rivals-ahmedinajad-mousavi-both-declare-victory... [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]
[...] Rivals Ahmedinejad & Mousavi Both Declare Victory in Iran Election [...]